This morning, Republican candidate Kentucky Senator Rand Paul dropped out the race for the nomination. Which gave me an idea about where this election is headed. Here is a few points, as follows: - I wonder why the almost non-existent candidacy of Govenor Jim Gilmore exists or why Senator Rick Santorum who only registered to quality to the "kids table" during the debates, are still in the race. I would expect after the results in Iowa that they would drop out. I think that their absolute maximum spotlight in this race will fade after another dismal performance in New Hampshire. After that, I expect they and a slew of other candidates drop out in rapid succession.
- So after the results of the New Hampshire primary, I expect to see all three "establishment" governors suspend their campaigns: former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and Ohio Governor John Kasich. The loss of Bush may add to Trump's narrative that he can "win." Christie and Kasich hold negligible appeal in the current party race, Kasich much less than Christie, however.
- After the South Carolina primary, I imagine that Fiorina or Carson drop out but I can forsee a scenario where Carson holds out until after Nevada.
- But after the Super Tuesday primaries, I see Donald Trump being the last of the candidates to win enough superdelegates to remain viable. This would leave the race a two man contest between Cruz and Rubio. Trump's loss in Iowa and finishing second, may fuel his desire to get out of the political game altogether or embolden his resolve for a third party bid. A third party bid could result in a Republican loss, if Trump is successful in sapping the Evangelical/crazy people vote from Cruz and Rubio. Trump would presumably choose to save face and get out, but he really is the only wildcard this election.
- From Super Tuesday onward until the convention, the race on the Republican side would be a two-man race between Cruz and Rubio. But because of the Republican establishments dislike of Cruz, it isn't difficult to imagine a scenario where the entire convention rallies behind Rubio and he is nominated the Republican nominee for president in 2016. Remember, Cruz is almost universally despised and the establishment wants to do anything in its power to eliminate him.
- If Rubio were to win the Republican nomination, he stands a real chance, barring the inclusion of a Trump independent run of defeating the Democratic nominee.
(A Real Clear Politics poll reported that a potential race between Sanders and Rubio or Clinton and Rubio results in a slim margin of victory for Rubio. The results are reversed for Sanders and Clinton when they are pitted against Cruz or Trump, which they defeat easily. This makes Rubio the only real threat to any Democratic nominee.)
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