2016 New Hampshire Primary Thoughts: A Kasich Nomination?

Prior to the February 6th Republican debate, I did not think Kasich had much of a chance of making an impression. Though I admired his positivity and his willingness to compromise with the other side. I think he really is the "best of the worst." He is an establishment candidate, a key member of the contingent of Congress who helped create a balanced budget in the late 1990s. He has apparently been a fairly strong governor in Ohio since his election in 2010. Unlike Trump, who thrives on negativity, insults and ignorance. Kasich really wants to create a vision of America that works for everyone. I disagree with his positions on many things about how to get there but I would be way more comfortable if he were to win the nomination and presidency.

At this juncture, it is very uncertain which Democratic candidate will win the nomination as both are campaigning fiercely. Sanders has won New Hampshire and lost by a very close 0.2% in Iowa. Kasich has stated that if Sanders won the nomination that "they will have no trouble winning the presidency." I think Kasich is underestimating the reach and influence of Bernie Sanders. It would be interesting if both were to win the nomination and Sanders defeats Kasich. I see the Governor as an admirable foe as opposed to the other crazies.

I thought that Rubio was the most likely candidate to win the nomination but since his poor performance and being caught with "robotic" talking points. I think he has damaged that possibility, leaving the field open once again. Rubio may be able to make a comeback but I think that he has garnered the fair criticism of being artificial. With an electorate that craves authenticity, Rubio's actions will be more difficult to move on from.

As time goes on, the field will continue to get smaller and I do think Kasich has the ability to stick it out. Cruz will no doubt win big in the South. I don't expect a big Kasich win in South Carolina. In fact, I see a repeat of Iowa in South Carolina. With Cruz being the winner and Trump finishing second, but I can forsee Bush finishing third. If Kasich is smart, he could dedicate himself to the same formula he developed in New Hampshire with the Nevada primary. With that, he could actually win Nevada or at the very least come in second by a much closer margin. If he does that will prove that he has the staying power necessary to hold out until the nomination.